Hurricane Earl

[cerina]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED
TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE
EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN
AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 21.2N 67.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 22.3N 69.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 24.8N 71.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.3N 73.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 43.5N 66.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 57.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[mid_nite_poet]

We will probably get the tail end of her

[cerina]

It probably won't be much by the time it gets to you but, if it hits land, it is Jack and mugley I am concerned about.

[mid_nite_poet]

It's not suppose to hit land in the USA, but you never know..They said it may be a category 1 or 2 by the time it gets here...

[mugley]

yeah the last I heard its supposed to just brush our outer banks and if it does that Jack will see some high winds and heavy seas but I don't think it will be anything to serious for him let alone me, ( I'm a 120 miles inland) but its still very early to say what its going to do, there is a cold front coming from the west that they think will push Earl and keep it out to sea, thx for the concern

[cerina]

I keep an eye on those things, mugley.

[mid_nite_poet]

Hurricane Earl downgraded to Category 3, still threatens East Coast

Earl


Hurricane Earl, the powerful storm system making its way towards the U.S. east coast, is projected to make landfall in Canada early Saturday morning, according to the latest forecasts.

Hurricane

[cerina]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010


VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT EARL HAS A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. A BLEND BETWEEN
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL 110 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WHICH SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE WARM OCEAN ALONG THE TRACK OF EARL...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL
SHOWS A STEADY STATE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5 THE
HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL
SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE
BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL
PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION
TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
TO THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A
EARL...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 25.1N 72.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 73.7W 110 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 29.8N 75.0W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.8N 75.2W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 73.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 60.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

[cerina]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS...AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[mugley]

looking at the tracking forecast, the eye is only supposed to come with in 50 miles of land here in NC, it really looks like MNP will get more of the storm than I will

[Jack Flash]

Business owners here were cautious but are mad about all the hype scaring away tourists from southern NC beaches

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[cerina]

looking at the tracking forecast, the eye is only supposed to come with in 50 miles of land here in NC, it really looks like MNP will get more of the storm than I will

It is forecast to be Force 1 by the time it reaches the Maritime provinces, depending on how cold the water is.

Business owners here were cautious but are mad about all the hype scaring away tourists from southern NC beaches

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

I can understand their frustration but surely it is better to be safe when you don't know for certain what is going to happen than to wait and see?

[mid_nite_poet]

If it makes landfall where they say it will, it will be 64 miles from where I live..

[Jack Flash]

Business owners here were cautious

Since this am it's been known that southern beaches (Cape Lookout and south) were only going to get a glancing blow. But the media outlets are still in full hurricane panic mode and most do not differentiate between the area beaches.

[cerina]

Have they issued any more mandatory evacuation notices or is it just the one for that island?

[Jack Flash]

Are you talking about Ocracoke Island? they always evacuate that early because the only access is via Ferry

if you're talking about the Outer Banks, the ribbon of island that runs along North Carolina s coast , then mandatory evacuations are only for north of Cape Hatteras and for tourists only. For them it will be like a bad nor'easter. For us a little wind tonight and a lot of great surf tomorrow.

[cerina]

I can't remember the name of the island where they issued a mandatory evacuation notice yesterday.

[Jack Flash]

some cams

Ocracoke
http://www.ocracokeisland.com/

Atlantic Beach
http://www.crabsclaw.com/webcam.html

Dare County
http://www.obxconnection.com/Outer-Banks-Webcams.htm